At the Chicago Association of REALTORS® 2026 Market Outlook event, the tone was set early by CAR President Lutalo McGee. In a period marked by rapid change, McGee emphasized that information alone is not enough.

“Staying informed is not optional,” McGee said. “Our clients rely on us to understand what is happening, what it means and how it impacts their decisions.” He cautioned that raw data has limited usefulness without professional judgment, adding, “Data on its own has limited value if it cannot be interpreted, contextualized and clearly communicated.”

McGee described the current environment as one of transformation, shaped by accelerating technology and rising expectations for innovation. Still, he reminded Realtors that the foundation of the business has not changed. “Even as tools and platforms evolve, one thing remains constant: Real estate is and always has been a people business,” he said. “It is built on trust, relationships and expertise required to guide clients through one of the most significant financial decisions of their lives.”

That framework carried into the economic outlook presented by Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®. Yun explained how multiple factors are shaping mortgage rates, inflation and the housing market.

After three years of high mortgage rates, Yun predicts the rate will lower in 2026.

“A rate closer to 6% appears much, much better in the consumer’s mindset. Maybe, yeah, this is the time to get into the market,” Yun said. He noted that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates to ease economic stress, but cautioned that inflation is “not fully contained.”

Yun highlighted gold prices as a signal of broader economic concerns, noting that rising gold reflects fears about the dollar’s purchasing power. He used this to counter widespread predictions of a housing crash: “Gold is an inflation hedge, and real estate has also served as an inflation hedge historically … Real estate is also a good inflation hedge.”

Turning to the labor market, Yun said employment remains strong, with record high numbers of people earning steady paychecks. At the same time, new job creation has slowed, with some months near zero. Yun explained that this is part of why the Fed is acting cautiously: They want to prevent temporary weakness from worsening.

In Illinois and the Chicago metro area, he noted that while the state has not led in job creation, the region still shows strong employment. Although the state has record high employment, it does not equate to record high home sales. Slower sales in recent years, Yun said, were driven by high mortgage rates and low inventory, as homeowners clung to their 3% loans. “With the passage of time, expect more inventory,” he said.

Looking ahead, Yun forecasts that falling mortgage rates and increasing inventory will drive stronger sales in 2026. National home sales remained roughly flat in 2025, with Chicago seeing modest gains. Yun optimistically projects a 14% increase in 2026, but notes that “[e]ven with 14% growth, we are not back to pre-COVID conditions.”

Thomas Walstrum, principal business economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, shared his outlook perspective at another market outlook event, this time hosted by Mainstreet REALTORS®.

According to S&P Global forecasts cited by Walstrum, U.S. real GDP is expected to grow about 2.2% in 2026, near the economy’s potential growth rate of roughly 1.8%. Unemployment is projected to remain slightly above the natural rate, at 4.7%, reflecting a modestly cool but healthy labor market. Inflation, measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is projected to gradually return to the Fed’s 2% target after tariff-related price effects. The Fed funds rate currently sits at 3.625%, with S&P projecting a 50-basis-point reduction by year-end toward the neutral rate.

Zooming in on the Chicago metro area, Walstrum highlighted that local employment growth closely tracks national trends, but at a slightly slower pace due to the region’s industry mix and climate. Over the next year, he expects Chicago employment growth to be around 0.5%, compared with 0.7% nationally. While jobs growth is slower, personal income per capita in the region remains above the U.S. average, and the area continues to be a highly productive economy.

In real estate, Walstrum observed that Chicago home prices have remained relatively stable compared with those of other large cities, making the region more affordable. New home sales, however, have experienced some slowdown, partially due to higher interest rates and pandemic-era market dynamics.

Strategy and execution

At CAR’s 2026 Market Outlook, global keynote speaker Marki Lemons Ryhal challenged agents to rethink how they use the data they already pay for. “This is the data that is used by 50% of Fortune 500 companies, and you have access to it inside of your member benefits,” she told the audience, adding that few are leveraging it to its full potential to create videos, podcasts and infographics.

Rather than relying solely on residential data, Lemons Ryhal encouraged agents to dive into commercial trade data. Commercial data, she explained, reveals median household income, homeownership rates, education levels, media habits and preferred activities.

“You have to talk to people the way in which they desire to be talked to. Being an expert in real estate has nothing to do with you … it’s 100% about the consumer,” she said. Lemons Ryhal emphasized that this approach directly drives representation agreements and compensation.

Lemons Ryhal stressed that agents should obtain their data firsthand from Realtors Property Resource, rather than outsourcing to generic AI. “Why would I ever go to ChatGPT to ask it about my data? I’m not doing that. I’m going to get my data firsthand from the people who get paid a whole lot of money to vet the data so that I get good, clean data to use in order to come back and dominate any ZIP code my little heart desires,” she said. Her workflow begins with downloading detailed commercial reports from RPR, then using the platform’s AI Script tool to create messaging across multiple tones and audiences — up to 70 unique tone combinations and 10 audiences per zip code.

From there, Lemons Ryhal leverages NotebookLM, Google’s AI notebook tool, to turn a single dataset into content for blogs, podcasts, videos, infographics and slide decks. Agents can even apply brand hex colors and produce content in up to 80 languages, all aligned to the people in their target communities.

Her message was clear: Productivity, focus and disciplined use of data separate top performers from the rest. “We’re using your member benefit tool and a tool you can use for free to create enough content to fuel a seven-figure business,” she said.