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Chicagoland Home Prices Remain Stable Around Recent Lows According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

by Chicago Agent

Data through July 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller(1) Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the annual growth rates in 16 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites slowed in July compared to June 2010.  The 10-City Composite is up 4.1% and the 20-City Composite is up 3.2% from where they were in July 2009. For June they were reported as +5.0% and +4.2%, respectively. Although home prices increased in most markets in July versus June, 15 MSAs and both Composites saw these monthly rates moderate in July.

The annual returns of the 10-City and 20-City Composite Home Price Indices show increases of 4.1% and 3.2%, respectively, inJuly 2010 compared to the same month in 2009. With July’s data, 10 of the 20 MSAs are reporting negative annual growth rates. With June’s report only five cities were negative on an annual basis – Atlanta, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver and Portland all fell back to reporting declining annual growth rates. The three cities in California, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco, showed the strongest annual growth rates of +7.5%, +9.3% and +11.2%, respectively; but these too are weaker than June’s print.

“Home prices crept forward in July. Ten of the 20 cities saw year-over-year gains and only one – Las Vegas – made a new bottom, as the impact of the first time home buyer program continued to fade away,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. “The year-over-year growth rates for 16 of the cities and both Composites weakened in July compared to June. While we could still see some residual support from the homebuyers’ tax credit, which covers purchases closing through September 30th, anyone looking for home price to return to the lofty 2005-2006 might be disappointed.  Judging from the recent behavior of the housing market, stable prices seem more likely.

“In the monthly data, 12 of the 20 MSAs and the two Composites were up in July over June; but the monthly rates also seem to be weakening. The next few months may give us an idea of the true strength of the housing market, as the temporary economic stimuli will have ended. Housing starts, sales and inventory data reported for August do not show signs of a robust market, and foreclosures continue.”

As of July 2010, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in late 2003. Measured from June/July 2006 through July 2010, the peak-to-current declines for the 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite are -28.3% and -27.9%, respectively. The improvement from their April 2009 trough is +7.9% and +6.9%, respectively.

In July, continuing its downward trend in all but two of the past 46 months, Las Vegas posted another index low as measured by the current housing cycle, when it peaked in August 2006. Peak-to-trough, that market is down 57.0%. Charlotte, Dallas, Denver,Phoenix, Portland and Tampa also saw prices decline in July.

Twelve of the 20 MSAs and both Composites showed month-over-month increases in July. The 10- and 20-City Composites were up 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively.  San Diego posted its 15th consecutive monthly increase. Chicago, Detroit, New York andWashington DC posted monthly increases of greater than 1%.

The table below summarizes the results for July 2010. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 23 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.

July 2010 July/June June/May
Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) 1-Year Change (%)
Atlanta 109.92 0.2% 1.7% -0.2%
Boston 158.83 0.6% 1.2% 2.8%
Charlotte 117.03 -0.2% 0.7% -3.5%
Chicago 126.17 1.0% 2.5% -1.7%
Cleveland 107.31 0.0% 1.3% -0.6%
Dallas 120.75 -0.3% 0.9% -0.4%
Denver 128.72 -0.4% 0.7% -0.1%
Detroit 71.17 1.6% 2.5% 1.3%
Las Vegas 100.91 -0.8% -0.6% -4.9%
Los Angeles 176.27 0.3% 0.6% 7.5%
Miami 147.88 0.7% 0.4% 0.4%
Minneapolis 127.01 0.8% 2.6% 6.4%
New York 174.90 1.3% 1.2% 0.6%
Phoenix 110.30 -0.6% 0.0% 3.4%
Portland 148.33 -0.3% 0.5% -1.2%
San Diego 165.02 0.7% 0.4% 9.3%
San Francisco 143.23 0.5% 0.3% 11.2%
Seattle 147.04 0.1% 0.0% -1.6%
Tampa 138.24 -0.2% 0.2% -3.2%
Washington 187.98 1.1% 1.8% 6.5%
Composite-10 162.27 0.8% 1.0% 4.1%
Composite-20 148.91 0.6% 1.0% 3.2%
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Fiserv
Data through July 2010

July/June Change (%) June/May Change (%)
Metropolitan Area NSA SA NSA SA
Atlanta 0.2% -0.8% 1.7% 0.6%
Boston 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% -0.1%
Charlotte -0.2% -0.5% 0.7% -0.2%
Chicago 1.0% 0.1% 2.5% 1.1%
Cleveland 0.0% -0.5% 1.3% -0.1%
Dallas -0.3% -0.6% 0.9% -0.2%
Denver -0.4% -0.8% 0.7% -1.0%
Detroit 1.6% -0.1% 2.5% 1.3%
Las Vegas -0.8% -1.4% -0.6% -0.9%
Los Angeles 0.3% -0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Miami 0.7% -0.1% 0.4% 0.3%
Minneapolis 0.8% -1.2% 2.6% 0.9%
New York 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
Phoenix -0.6% -1.7% 0.0% -0.7%
Portland -0.3% -0.9% 0.5% -0.1%
San Diego 0.7% -0.2% 0.4% -0.3%
San Francisco 0.5% -0.5% 0.3% -0.4%
Seattle 0.1% -0.1% 0.0% -0.8%
Tampa -0.2% -1.4% 0.2% -0.3%
Washington 1.1% 0.6% 1.8% 0.9%
Composite-10 0.8% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3%
Composite-20 0.6% -0.1% 1.0% 0.2%
Source: Standard & Poor’s and Fiserv
Data through July 2010

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales data. The S&P/Case-Shiller National U.S. Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions and is calculated quarterly. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 10 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite of 20 Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the subject market.

These indices are generated and published under agreements between Standard & Poor’s and Fiserv, Inc.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are produced by Fiserv, Inc. In addition to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Fiserv also offers home price index sets covering thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets. The indices, published by Standard & Poor’s, represent just a small subset of the broader data available through Fiserv.

For more information about S&P Indices, please visit www.standardandpoors.com/indices.

(1) Case-Shiller® and Case-Shiller Indexes® are registered trademarks of Fiserv, Inc.

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