Existing home sales in August are projected to increase 5.4 percent from July and 15.8 percent year-over-year, according to the most recent projections from Tom Lawler, a noted analyst of the housing market.
Lawler said he based his estimates on data from local Realtor boards, associations and MLS listings, though his data is different from the “consensus” forecasts.
“This estimate is significantly above the ‘consensus’ forecast of 4.75 million SAAR, but it is what the local data available suggest,” Lawler said. “A sizable number of markets showed YOY gains of 20 percent or more (in some cases by a lot), including (but not limited to) a fair number of markets in the middle of the country. Of course, sales in many of those markets were extremely weak last August, which was pretty soon following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit.”
The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release its existing home data tomorrow at 10 a.m., EST.
Lawler also predicted a decline in housing inventories, though his data was not quite as confident as for sales.
“On the inventory side, there is absolutely no doubt that the inventory of homes for sale fell from the end of July to the end of August, and was down significantly from a year ago nationwide,” Lawler said. “A ‘best guess’ would be that the NAR’s inventory number for August will be down 2.5 percent from July, and down 13.5 percent from last August.”