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Despite Varying Forecasts, Experts Agree on 2011-2012 Home Sale Increases

by Chicago Agent

Everyone has a different outlook on the housing market, but where you get your information from can also alter your opinion for better or worse. The truth is, nobody is entirely sure what will happen to home sales or median prices over the next few years, but that hasn’t stopped housing experts from putting out their best educated guesses.


Real Trends released a side by side yearly comparison of existing home sales for 2010, and where they expect them to be in 2011, 2012 and 2013 as well as median prices for the same years. In addition to their forecast, they added those from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and Fannie Mae-allowing a side-by-side comparison of some of the more credible housing experts-demonstrating that experts can’t even fully agree on past data from 2010.

In addition to the many economists weighing in on when recovery may occur, these three housing experts all expect an increase from 2010-2011 in both sales and median prices, followed by a fairly large sales increase in 2012.

Real Trends and Fannie Mae agreed on 2010’s existing home sales numbers, marking them at 4,908,000, but NAR went slightly lower at 4,907,000. The same went for 2010’s median prices-Real Trends and Fannie Mae agree on $173,000 and NAR posted $172,900.

For the current year, all three expected existing home sale increases and home price declines, with Real Trends forecasting a 2.7 percent increase in sales accompanies by a -3.5 percent decrease in prices, NAR counting on a 3.8 percent increase in sales and a -2.4 price decline, and Fannie Mae expecting a 4.4 percent increase in sales accompanied by a -4.2 percent loss in sales prices.

In 2012, all three expect fairly large increases in sales, and varying expectations for prices. Real Trends anticipated a 4.6 percent sales increase, and a 0.9 percent median price increase. NAR forecasts a 5.2 percent increase in sales and a 2.7 percent increase in prices. Fannie Mae expects a whopping 8.6 percent increase in sales accompanied by a -1.3 percent decrease in the median sales price.

NAR hasn’t put out a forecast for 2013, but Real Trends expects a 4.8 percent increase in sales and a 2.7 percent increase in prices. Fannie Mae forecasts a 2.9 percent increase in sales and a 1.5 percent increase in the average sales price.

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