A roundup of real estate predictions reports

by Meg White

A roundup of real estate predictions reports

This time of year, there are so many organizations, economists and experts offering their thoughts on what’s to come in the next year that it’s hard to keep up. Here’s a quick look at what we’ve gleaned so far.

T3 Sixty’s 2020 Swanepoel Trends Report

Perspective: Vigilant
Top-line data: Venture capitalists and iBuyers poised to take over a significant portion of the market
Happy thoughts: New ways for brokerages to serve consumers after the transaction offer opportunities
Reasons to worry: Instability caused by venture capital and technology in real estate; MLS challenges; industry antitrust lawsuits; and security threats

Goldman Sachs’ Global Economic Outlook 2020: A Break in the Clouds

Perspective: International
Top-line data: 3.4% global GDP growth in 2020; 20% risk of a U.S. recession starting in the next 12 months
Happy thoughts: Low mortgage rates; impacts of trade tensions and ongoing Brexit negotiations should lessen next year
Reasons to worry: Potential slowdown in Europe and China could impact U.S. prospects; a possible increase in the corporate tax rate after the 2020 election could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 11% in 2021.

ULI’s Emerging Trends in Real Estate

Perspective: Urban
Top-line data: Chicago’s real estate market ranks 48th out of 80 top cities.
Happy thoughts: Chicago’s institutions and industrial corridors remain attractive to investors.
Reasons to worry: Residential affordability could cause “the great unraveling.”

Oxford Economics Global Cities Outlook

Perspective: Deceleration
Top-line data: GDP growth to slow to 1.3% in Chicago
Happy thoughts: Though nearly two-thirds of the world’s major cities will experience slower annual growth, most are still posting positive gains.
Reason to worry: Sluggish growth in Chicago’s large financial service sectors and outward migration to more affordable housing markets

UCLA Anderson Forecast

Perspective: Revised
Top-line data point: U.S. GDP growth of 1.7% from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020
Happy thoughts: Low interest rates; high stock prices; positive yield curve; good jobs numbers; and a better-than-expected housing market
Reason to worry: The reduction in business taxes has not spurred business spending as hoped. The report was revised up from earlier estimates, but still characterizes the economy in the latter half of next year as “problematic.”

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