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Another Down Month for the CoreLogic HPI

by Chicago Agent

The CoreLogic HPI ran negative for the fourth consecutive month, dropping1.4 percent in November.

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI), the influential measure of home values that is used by the Federal Reserve in its analysis, came out earlier today, showing values in November continued their winter slide.

A three-month weighted average of September, October and November, the HPI fell 1.4 percent from October to November and 4.3 percent year-over-year from November 2010. The monthly decline marks the fourth straight month that home values have fallen in the HPI.

As with past HPIs, the index yielded dramatically different results based on what properties were included in its measures. Excluding distressed home sales, year-over-year declines were only 0.6 percent for November, compared to the aforementioned 4.3 percent.

Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist, said the non-distressed market continued to show promising signs in November’s totals.

“With one month of data left to report, it appears that the healthy, non-distressed market will be very modestly down in 2011,” Fleming said. “Distressed sales continue to put downward pressure on prices, and is a factor that must be addressed in 2012 for a housing recovery to become a reality.”

Overall, according to data crunching at Calculated Risk, the index is down 32.8 from its 2006 peak, and because of seasonal declines, the index will probably continue to post negative totals for the next few months.

“Month-to-month prices changes will probably remain negative through March 2012 and it is likely that there will be new post-bubble low for this index in the next month or two,” the finance blog stated.

Capital Economics, though, a Toronto-based research firm cited by HousingWire, had hopeful projections for the second half of the year, saying that as distressed properties become be less of a problem, prices will rebound.

“The current balance between demand and supply, as measured by how long it would take to clear all the homes on the market at recent rates of sale, is consistent with prices stabilizing in six months’ time,” Capital Economics stated.

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