CoreLogic released its latest Home Price Index, or HPI, earlier today, showing that home values declined on a month-to-month basis for the second straight time from August to September.
Though the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which is released the final Tuesday of every month by Standard & Poor’s, is generally the nation’s leading indicator on home prices, the Federal Reserve and a myriad of other analysts use CoreLogic’s data.
In total, the HPI reported that monthly prices declined by 1.1 percent from August to September, with year-over-year prices down by 4.4 percent for September. Though the numbers look dire, CoreLogic notes that the housing market’s vast supply of distressed properties are largely pushing down values; when distressed properties are taken out of the equation, yearly values declined by just 1.1 percent for September.
Mark Fleming, the chief economist for CoreLogic, said that lacking demand for homes is a primary contributor to the stagnant prices.
“Even with low interest rates, demand for houses remains muted. Home sales are down in September and the inventory of homes for sale remains elevated. Home prices are adjusting to correct for the supply-demand imbalance and we expect declines to continue through the winter. Distressed sales remain a significant share of homes that do sell and are driving home prices overall,” Fleming said.
A month ago, we reported on the last HPI, and speculated that a decrease in the HPI anticipated a decrease in the Case-Shiller. Though prices did increase in Case-Shiller by 0.2 percent (including a 1.4 percent increase for Chicago), the gains were smaller than in recent indexes, and the latest HPI may hint at the first negative month for the Case-Shiller in some time.
See here for a full graph of the HPI, courtesy of Calculated Risk.